2027 COLA Is Tracking at 3 5% — Medicare Takes Part of It

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The 2027 Social Security raise is not official yet. Social Security is expected to announce it on October 14, 2026. Right now The Senior Citizens League is estimating 3.5 percent, based on July and August inflation. September’s number still has to come in.

This video is about the check that actually hits, not the headline percent.

A 3.5 percent raise is not the same dollar amount for everyone. On a $1,200 benefit it is about $42 before deductions. On $2,000 it is about $70. On $3,000 it is about $105. The July 2026 average retired-worker benefit was about $2,086. At 3.5 percent, that is about $73 before anything comes out.

Medicare Part B for 2026 is official: $202.90 a month. The 2027 premium is not final until Medicare announces it. The Medicare Trustees projected $209.50, which is $6.60 more. That $6.60 is only a projection. On a typical check, that step nicks the raise. It does not wipe it out. A $2,000 example goes from about $70 gross to about $63.40 net, if the Trustees number holds and you pay the standard premium.

It does not work that way for every household. Spousal, survivor, and disability benefits get the same percent, but on their own benefit, not on the national average. Hold-harmless only stops a very small check from dropping because of the standard Part B increase. At these estimates, that line is about $189 a month.

Most people are nowhere near it. IRMAA is outside that shield. The 2027 surcharge uses your 2025 tax return. Last year’s first tier was $81.20 extra on Part B and $14.50 on Part D. People new to Part B, and people who pay Medicare directly, are also outside the shield. A Part D or Advantage plan change can take more than $6.60. The 2027 Part D cap of $2,400 is set, and it does not cover premiums or drugs the plan will not cover.

Medicare Open Enrollment runs October 15 through December 7, 2026, for coverage that starts January 1, 2027. Your plan’s Annual Notice of Change should already have arrived. Mark the premium, deductible, drug list, network, and prior authorization.

Before October 14, write down your current monthly benefit and multiply by 0.035. That is a working gross, not the official raise. Find the Part B line actually taken from your check. On October 14, replace 3.5 percent with the official percent. In November, replace $6.60 with the real Medicare number. Do not file a December claim just to catch the COLA. The raise is built into the benefit whether you have claimed or not.

These are planning numbers, not a promise. Official sources are Social Security, CMS, and your own Annual Notice of Change.

The Worksheet Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jwKsll1vzM1f7emUkedbzOQnOPqtmAPf/view?usp=sharing

Chapters
0:00 Budget the headline, or the net?
0:15 The 3.5% estimate
0:28 Part B: $202.90 official, $209.50 not final
0:45 Open Enrollment, Oct 15–Dec 7
1:34 $1,200, $2,000, and $3,000
2:05 After the estimated $6.60
2:50 Who this estimate does not apply to
3:22 IRMAA and the shield
3:51 Plan changes, the $2,400 cap, Medigap
4:38 What to do before October 14
5:42 The calendar through December 7
6:12 Worksheet
7:13 Write it twice

2027 COLA, Social Security raise, Medicare Part B, Open Enrollment 2026, IRMAA, Senior Citizens League, net Social Security check, ANOC